Business
Who Are You Betting Against?
If you're participating in prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, it's easy to assume you're competing against friends or other retail users online.
Published to TikTok on June 22, 2026. Created by Josh Paul Popkin.
If you're participating in prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, it's easy to assume you're competing against friends or other retail users online.
In reality, you're often taking positions against sophisticated market participants, including hedge funds and professional traders.
Think of it this way: imagine sitting down at a poker table believing you're playing recreational players, only to discover halfway through the game that everyone else is a professional poker player.
You'd probably reconsider how much money you're willing to put at risk.
There's nothing inherently wrong with prediction markets. If you're participating for entertainment, that's perfectly reasonable.
However, if you're approaching them as an investment vehicle, it's worth asking a simple question:
Who is on the other side of your trade?
The answer may be very different from what you expect.
